基于两类型灾害事件考虑的赈灾物资储备

赈灾物资的储备,既要符合物资的科学储存规律、又要满足物资储备的经济规律.在建立赈灾物资储备一般模型后,按照重复灾害事件和未遂灾害事件两类灾害事件的理论之说,对模型进行修改完善,分别构建未遂灾害事件的赈灾物资储备模型以及重复灾害事件的赈灾物资储备模型.通过实例分析,验证了所建模型的合理性和可行性.     

复杂网络中心性对灾害蔓延的影响

基于一个普适性的灾害蔓延动力学模型,在三种网络拓扑结构(随机网、小世界网和无标度网)下,仿真分析了网络中心性对灾害蔓延速度和扩散趋势的影响.通过改变初始蔓延条件来分析网络初始状态对蔓延效率的影响,并着重讨论了在四种初始崩溃节点选取策略下灾害蔓延最终状态的差异.结果表明:对于四种攻击策略,网络最终状态有着明显的差异,网络对随机攻击具有较强的抵御能力,而对于目标,攻击却显示较强的脆弱性,或许,三种网络表现出不同的脆弱程度.最后,在一个实际网络上对理论分析结果进行了验证.     

城市防洪减灾决策方案优化研究

城市防洪减灾决策的成功与否直接影响着将来的洪水所造成的损失大小.如何应用自然、经济和社会信息,经超前分析以确保实施某一优化方案之后所造成的损失最小是防洪减灾决策的核心问题.本文深入地分析了城市防洪减灾决策方案优化的众多影响因素,在此基础上把模糊优选神经网络模型应用到城市防洪减灾方案优化中,并建立了城市防洪减灾方案优化模型,并通过实例验证了其有效性.     

天山北坡乌——库公路沿线自然灾害特征及其对公路的影响

塌方和泥石流主要集中在海拔1500m以上的中山带,其每年暴发的高峰期同降水的最大期一致,暴发频率与公路两侧山坡的风化程度、碎屑含量、基岩状况及支沟状况有密切关系,热融沉陷发育在冻土区,每年4月冻土开始融化、稀如泥浆,使路面下沉翻浆,其沉陷速度在天山北坡为3.0cm/年,11月冻结,南坡为向阳坡,春季气温回升快,冻土首先沉陷;夏季温度高,季节融化层厚度大;秋季阳坡降温慢,融化层冻结慢,其危害程度取决于季节融化层的厚度,由于老公路修筑在富含冰的新冰碛垄上,原有的稳定结构被破坏,冰体融化造成公路大规模的沉陷和坍塌,公路完好率仅10％～20％。     

海啸的物理

地震海啸的产生是地球表面固体层和流体层相互作用的结果．文章介绍了这种相互作用的物理过程，讨论了海啸的大小、能量、传播速度．指出：建立早期预警系统是减少海啸灾害的重要措施，目前的预警系统虚报率很高的问题，仍需要通过加强地球表层系统相互作用的研究来解决．     

Computerized support systems for emergency decision making

In all fields of human society, occasional emergencies are almost inevitable. Once an emergency occurs, rapid and proper decision making is required. The purpose of this paper is to explore the design and development of computerized support systems for emergency decision making (EDM). First the characteristics of EDM problems are examined. Then, in view of limited human computer rationality, requirements for a computerized support system for EDM are determined. A conceptual structure for knowledge-based distributed emergency decision support systems is proposed. Finally, a prototype system for safety protection and disaster response in coal mines, developed using the proposed structure, is briefly described.This work is partly supported by the State Science and Technology Commission of China, the National Key Laboratory on Industrial Control of China and Fok Ying Tung Education Foundation.     

Computation of two-dimensional dam-break flood flows

Sudden total collapse of a dam holding back a reservoir of water, whenever it occurs, becomes formidably impressive in the extent of destruction with which it is associated. The movement on a dry bed of a two-dimensional flood wave resulting from the break of a dam has been one of the most important and challenging subjects in rapidly varied unsteady flows from the computational point of view. An implicit time-marching finite volume numerical scheme was developed and subsequently applied for the solution of the two-dimensional unsteady open channel flow equations written in conservation form. In order to avoid the problems associated with a conventional grid system, a body-fitted non-orthogonal local co-ordinate system was utilized. The proposed numerical technique was applied to determine the stage hydrographs, water surface profiles and velocities of flood flows resulting from suddenly breached storage dams. Predictions were compared with an analytical solution, with available numerical solutions using MacCormack's two-step explicit scheme and with experimental measurements. Agreement between predictions and measurements regarding the wave front advancement and stage hydrographs is considered to be satisfactory.     

浙江省汛期旱涝趋势对气候变暖的响应

近50多年来浙江省气候变化总趋势在逐渐变暖，80年代中期开始变暖明显，增幅加大．浙江省汛期各月降水量对气候变暖的响应不同：在季节转换月份5月和9月，降水量明显减小，而在夏季的降水量增加，8月尤甚．在气候变暖期，浙江省汛期旱涝事件的发生频数增加．大气环流时气候变暖的响应是：5月份，高层南亚高压偏弱偏南，中国东南部上空为平直的西风气流，引导冷空气多偏北东移，中层印缅槽的减弱导致向江南水汽输送减少，低层偏南气流远离华东，浙江省主要受单-西北干燥气流影响，降水显著偏少；8月份，青藏高压位置偏西，中国东南部上空西北气流有利引导冷空气南下，低层越赤道气流加强了赤道幅合带的扰动，有利台风的生成和发展，中层副高南侧偏东气流有利于引导台风北上登陆华东，导致影响浙江台风年频数增加，台风与冷空气相互作用有利强降水发生，形成台涝．在气候变暖期海水表层温度距平升高，ENSO事件的多发、增强的倾向影响了浙江省汛期旱涝趋势．     

Two-phase brine mixtures in the geothermal context and the polymer flood model

Two-phase mixtures of hot brine and steam are important in geothermal reservoirs under exploitation. In a simple model, the flows are described by a parabolic equation for the pressure with a derivative coupling to a pair of wave equations for saturation and salt concentration. We show that the wave speed matrix for the hyperbolic part of the coupled system is formally identical to the corresponding matrix in the polymer flood model for oil recovery. For the class ofstrongly diffusive hot brine models, the identification is more than formal, so that the wave phenomena predicted for the polymer flood model will also be observed in geothermal reservoirs.Roman Symbols A,B coefficient matrices (5) - c(x,t) salt concentration (primary dependent variable) - C(p, s, c, q _t) wave speed matrix (6) - f source term (5) - g acceleration due to gravity (constant) - h _b(p, c) brine specific enthalpy - h _v(p) vapour specific enthalpy - j conservation flux (1) - k absolute permeability (constant) - k _b(s), k_v(s) relative permeabilities of the brine and vapour phases - K conductivity - p(x,t) pressure (primary dependent variable) - q volume flux (Darcy velocity) (3) - s(x,t) brine saturation (primary dependent variable) - t time (primary independent variable) - T=T _sat(p) saturation temperature - u _b(p, c) brine specific internal energy - u _m T rock matrix specific internal energy - u _v(p) vapour specific internal energy - U(x, t) shock velocity - x space (primary independent variable) Greek Symbols porosity (constant) - _b(p, c) brine dynamic viscosity - _v(p) vapour dynamic viscosity - (p, s, c) conservation density (1) - _b(p, c) brine density - _v(p) vapour density Suffixes b brine - m rock matrix - t total - v vapour - S salt - M mass - E energy